Will The Mekong Break its Banks and Flood Vientiane ?
Peter Evans is one of our researchers for Asia; he spends quite a bit of time in the region, being based in Vientiane the capital of Laos. Vientiane is situated on the banks of the Mekong river. The last few days have seen the level of the water flowing down the Mekong rise dramatically as a consequence of heavy and persistent rains upstream. The rising waters are threatening to flood Vientiane, something that has not happened since 1966. Peter gives us an update from Vientiane:
12th August
It has been a rather odd day today. For some weeks now a few of us living in Vientiane had noted that the Mekong was rising rapidly, much earlier than usual and that at the rate it was happening and so early in the rainy season it was highly likely that Vientiane would flood this year. One friend went so far as to buy an inflatable boat and a small motor. The last time the city flooded was in 1966. There was a near flood in 1995, the year I first came to Vientiane (as Country Manager for Telstra). Today the Mekong officially reached what the Mekong River Commission (MRC) defines as “flood level” at Vientiane. Low lying suburbs upstream and downstream from the city have already flooded. The city itself (where I live and work) is protected to some extent by a levee bank. If that weren’t there the city would be flooded now.
Up until a day ago, there has been no sign of contingency planning for possible flooding in Vientiane. No bulldozers, sandbags, etc. In 1995 I remember seeing bulldozers appear two days after the river peaked. The approach in Lao seemed to be if it floods it floods. However, there were amazing scenes today as the whole population seemed to spring into action. The levee bank has now got a wall of sandbags on top of it. Not sure that this will make a whole lot of difference. But it was certainly reassuring to see plenty of action. Roads were blocked off by the police as truckload after truckload of sand was carted to the river bank and then teams of locals working at strategic intervals along the river bank filled bags with sand. There was almost a carnival atmosphere, as the volunteers went about there work in the drizzly rain. In fact, there was lots of excitement all around town. The MRC’s website said that the Mekong at Vientiane was about at 12.6m, meaning it had passed the flood alarm point. The MRC forecast is effectively predicting that the river will come over the levee bank and flood Vientiane city in the next day or so. The river has already flooded upstream at Luang Prabang and the peak water there takes about two days to reach Vientiane.
Right now the Mekong is a sight to behold as the swollen waters, full of an incredible amount of debris, race past Vientiane (at probably around 10km/hr). The speed of the current is dramatic. Most of the debris being swept along is vegetation, logs, etc. Occasionally a whole tree goes racing by. If the city is flooded there could be a few headaches for the inhabitants, apart from the obvious one of getting wet. If the power goes out, for example, it will affect communications (phone and Internet). The airport may be closed as was in 1966. It was under a metre of water then. Even the Friendship Bridge across the Mekong to Thailand could be inaccessible for a while. All this has prompted me to do a bit of my own personal contingency planning - although I have not gone as far as buying myself a boat! I have stocked up on canned food and bottled water. All my papers, books and files are now stored in high places. And even if the city does flood, the MRC says the water level will recede in a day or two and things will then get back to normal. Well, sort of…
13th August
Things seem calmer in the city today. But the water level had continued its relentless rise overnight and had risen another 60cm in the last 24hrs by my calculation. No fresh report on the Mekong River Commission’s website as I write this, but it must be almost at 13.5m now. Also not sure of the effectiveness of the new sandbag “wall” as this will depend on the weakest and lowest points in the structure and by my reckoning there were lots of those. In one case they had left a 2m gap in the wall so that people could still get through to a riverside restaurant that continued to operate - with no sign of the sandbags that would be used to close the “gate” when the time came. Still it is better then nothing and the longer it takes to peak the more time there is for fine tuning the design! Apart from the sandbagging, the general buzz continued around the place as lots of people seem to be on the move. By nightfall it felt almost celebratory as lots of families gathered on the riverbank to watch the river flow by. So we watch and wait…
Thursday 14th August
After dark yesterday evening (following my last report) I went down to the river to check ‘my’ marker. And sure enough there had been no change in level from earlier in the day. All the signs were that the river was peaking (hopefully) – at least for the time being – at 13.75m [see photo attached]. Early this morning, I walked the 200m from the office where I work to the riverbank to see how things were going. Again the signs were good, the marker indicating that the water level had remained unchanged overnight. The restrictions on traffic movement around the city continued, thereby allowing further work on sandbagging and other activities that might prevent flooding. It was obvious that no one was thinking the danger had passed. I may not have noticed the monks on the previous day or two, but today I saw groups of monks down by the water or heading towards the river. Most reassuring, no doubt matching the efforts of the authorities and the volunteers, but in another, spiritual dimension.
Friday 15th August
Today the water level started falling. Less debris in the water now; I expect that is because all the stuff high on the banks has already been swept away by the rising river. The front page of the Vientiane Times is claiming that 2 million bags had been used to build a 2.5m high sandbag wall along the river bank to protect the city. I am sure the reporter has got carried away with the moment. In most places the wall I have seen is around 1m in height and only occasionally reaches 1.5m. Whatever the height, it is indeed impressive the speed at which it has happened. By afternoon the water is down about 0.3m from its peak. But another surge is expected, so it needs to drop a lot further to make room for more water. The MRC doesn’t seem to be predicting a surge, but there are lots of rumours around about more rain up north and, something more difficult to check, that the Chinese were planning to open the floodgates on their dam or dams.
Saturday 16th August
The weekend, with less people on the roads, gives me a chance to drive a bit out of town to see what has been happening. There are clear signs of flooding downstream less than 4km from the city centre. A massive effort is going into reinforcement of the sandbag wall near the French school in particular. (I don’t think this is just to protect the French school.) One km further on and at the so-called Vientiane Port on the Mekong, the wharf is completely inundated. Houses along this section are in one metre of water if they are on the wrong side of the sandbags. At the 6km point the road along the riverbank has a road block and I can’t get through. Beyond this point is where there has been serious flooding in a number of villages. In the meantime, the Vientiane Times notes that when Vientiane experienced its worst flooding back in 1966, the water level that year was just over 12m, but the banks of the river were not reinforced to prevent flooding like they are now. CNN calls it a 100 year flood (typically, they spell the name of the capital differently – Vieng Chan, rather than Vientiane. Why?).
Sunday 17th August
The water level continues to edge downwards from its almost 14m peak, but not very quickly. It is down around 13m by mid-afternoon. I took a drive upstream today. Anyone who has visited Vientiane and had a drink on the Mekong at the famous Sunset Bar would be shocked to see it now. It is like a war zone, almost hidden behind a wall of sandbags (very well constructed). There are many houses in this area that are now surrounded by water. But life goes on, with people simply going about their business and somehow coping with the unwelcome water around them. They are now part of the Mekong… Despite the MRC forecasting a further decline in the water level over the next 5 days, there is still a strong feeling around that another surge is on the way. I am due to fly out on next Thursday night. This is not an evacuation on my part. Just a coincidence in timing. Next Saturday I have an important event back in Australia – a football club reunion; our team won a premiership way back in 1968 and we are getting together again after all those years. Followed by a BuddeComm conference in Sydney on Friday 29th!
Also see BuddeComm Focus Report:
Laos – Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
August 14th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
I also live in Vientiane and for the last 5 years I have been watching with amazement, the stupidity of the Lao government in allowing landfill and development projects on the natural wetlands into which the stormwater normally drains. The current flooding comes as no surprise at all. Obviously, higher than usual monsoonal rainfall is the root of the problem but the government’s blind ignorance of planning (in preference to lining their pockets with bribes and handouts from Chinese and Vietnamese developers) can only continue to exacerbate the problems.