Forecasting the Latin American Telecom Market

Telecoms services have become an increasingly essential item not only for businesses but also for residential consumers in Latin America. Therefore, demand should not collapse in 2009 despite the recession. Telecom revenues should continue to grow in most countries, driven by mobile telephony and broadband, but growth rates will be quite small compared with previous years.

The services worst affected by the economic slowdown are likely to be those that provide entertainment, such as pay TV, digital media, and non-corporate mobile data services. Also, equipment renewal will suffer, because although corporate and residential users are not going to stop using their cell phones and computers, they will wait for the economic crisis to lift before they spend money on upgrades.

The fixed-line market is likely to remain in its present stagnant condition. In some of the major economies, mobile telephony operators may need to seek additional revenues from SMS and low-cost value added services rather than from new subscriptions, the market being close to saturation.

Broadband development may require governmental and regulatory efforts, particularly with a view to public wellbeing such as e-health, e-education, e-government, and other social services. Universalisation projects, however, could be paralysed by fund shortages, unless they are included in the governments’ anti-crisis measures.

Forecast mobile subscribers – higher growth scenario in Brazil – 2008; 2013; 2018

Year

Subscribers (million)

Penetration

2008

148.81

77.1%

2013

207.37

101.1%

2018

235.28

108.9%

(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Latin American Telecom Market Forecasts, provides scenario forecasts for the years 2008, 2013, 2015 and 2018, addressing the major fixed-line, mobile, and broadband markets of Latin America and the Caribbean. The countries covered in the report include: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico and Venezuela.

 

For more information see: Latin American Telecom Market Forecasts

http://www.budde.com.au/Research/Latin-American-Telecom-Market-Forecasts.html

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