Investing in the Communications Revolution
Over the last thirty years, BuddeComm has prided itself on its analyses and forecasts. We have a good record. We have never got it completely wrong, and we have always been able to at least point our customers and readers in the right direction. But one of the most difficult tasks we face is that of identifying timeframes for our projections. We believe that our professional experience stands us in good stead in this respect, but it is still our greatest challenge.
Professor Carlota Perez recently put this into perspective for us and this forecasting report offers improved guidelines through which to view the transitional period of the communications revolution. We are now moving towards the mass deployment phase, which will be accompanied by unprecedented social and economic benefits - not just for individual nations but, if we do it right, for the global community also.
The communications element of the broader ICT revolution is unfolding before our very eyes. We are right in the midst of the transition from old communications structures (mainly one-way streets) to new structures that are fully-interactive and video-based.
This is not simply a technology-based development - it is bringing with it massive changes in the way we live, work and communicate. It impacts on nations and businesses as well as individuals.
The fact that these changes are being universally embraced shows the positive impact the revolution is having on human society. It doesn’t matter which element one focuses on - mobile, Internet, e-applications, social networks or blogs - people love it. It is changing our societies and our economies.
At the same time the new form of communication doesn’t stop at national borders. It offers the real possibility of creating global changes, and this is already evident, with many emerging economies seeing significant growth in GDP that is, to some extent at least, driven by the communications revolution. This applies right across South America, Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe.
It is interesting to note that until it is possible to bring the benefits of a technology revolution to everyone it is apparently not possible to move to the next stage. Could this be a natural law? We only have to look at those countries where full deployment of such a ‘revolution’ is not achieved to see what disastrous social, economic and political problems can occur as a result.
Carlota talks of the three phases of the Revolution
- Installation period
- Transition phase
- Deployment period
We saw the installation phase of this comms cycle during the 1990s and early 2000s, and this led to the bust in 2003. As we see it, we are now nearing the end of the transition phase. You might recall how, during that difficult period, we supported the dotcomers. Most of them had a sound business model - they just arrived on the scene too early. But we only have to look at Google, Yahoo, YouTube and Facebook to see that we have now, at least partially, arrived in the deployment period.
We are still not really there, but it is evident that the builders of the ‘deployment period’, as well as governments, are now in the process of taking the baton from the financial people who drove the installation period.
It is exciting that to be in that transition phase - a make-or-break period. The old forces are still holding onto the past, but the new forces are slowly winning. It is also a time where the decisions made are going to be crucial for the long-term economic and social climate.
Being involved in and influencing that process in an effort to achieve the right outcomes is a real privilege. One will probably only ever experience one of these transition periods, at least at a level that allows for active participation in the process.
For more information see our new 9 pages focus report: Global - Investing in the Communications Revolution
Table of content
The Communications Revolution
- Exhibit - Key elements of techno-economic revolutions
Build and they will come
- The importance of infrastructure
- Exhibit - Five technology cycles of the last 200 years
- Long-term policies and investment strategies
- Installation period - build and they will come
- Transition period - great upheaval
- Deployment period - reaping the rewards
Ingredients of the Communications Revolution
- Subset of the ICT cycle
- Transition started with dotcom bust
- Global implications
- Dirt-cheap broadband
- Exhibit - effects of the mass deployment phase of communications revolution
Nanotechnology - towards 2050
- Exhibit - Next cycle - nanorevolution
Conclusions and Recommendations
- For Investors
- For business entrepreneurs
- For telco operators, service and content providers
- For governments
See new BuddeComm report:- Global - Investing in the Communications Revolution
