The future of the copper network.
Even in the most positive of circumstances the copper network will still be with us for many years to come. The physical elements of the fibre rollout dictate this and could easily take 10-15 years.
But of course, every year more and more customers will have the option to switch over to fibre as the fibre network is gradually rolled out. At that point in time customers can choose to either stick to their copper connection or move over to fibre.
BuddeComm envisages that over time it will cost more to run services over the copper network than over fibre – in particular, the maintenance costs related to fibre are significantly lower.
The early movers to fibre will be the customers who want to use services that can only be delivered over a fibre network because of the quality required, the level of security, reliability, etc.
We have observed this pattern for 1G to 2G and now to 3G mobile services, and a similar process is at present underway in relation to digital TV.
The operators of fibre-based services can use a variation of price, marketing and sales tools to encourage users to move over. However for at least the next ten years a forced transition is highly unlikely.
As the fibre connection will deliver not just Internet and telephone access, but also healthcare, education, media and smart meter services, it could well be that some people will continue, at least for a while, to be connected to two networks. All of this is perfectly possible under the current scenario.
We see that many ISPs are continuing to roll out DSLAM equipment which is used for the delivery of broadband services over the copper network. The fact that these companies keep investing in the copper network is a clear indication that nothing is going to happen overnight.
Paul Budde
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