BuddeComm’s 2010 Global Telecoms Industry Snapshot
The vibrant global telecommunications industry has faced many challenges over the last decade including regulatory and technology changes, a severe industry downturn, consolidation, market saturation, declining prices and major inroads by mobile services.
In recent times the focus has been primarily on surviving the economic downturn. While the various sectors that comprise the global telecommunications industry have been impacted upon in different ways; as a whole the industry has been quite resilient when compared to some other industries such as automotive, retail and travel.
In particular, growth in the mobile and fixed broadband sectors has continued and mobile subscriber penetration now sits at around 70% on a global level. The use of mobile data and mobile broadband services has also grown due to capped data packages, strong competition, smart phones and increased 3G penetration.
Table 1 – Worldwide telecom statistics at a glance – 2010
|
telecom statistic forecasts (e) |
|
| Population | 6.9 billion |
| Fixed lines | 1.4 billion |
| Mobile subscribers | 5.1 billion |
| Mobile text messages sent | 4.2 trillion |
| Internet users | 1.6 billion |
| Fixed broadband subscribers | 580 million |
(Source: BuddeComm forecasts, 2010)
The financial crisis has led to global attention focusing on high-speed broadband based on Fibre-to-the- Home (FttH) and deployments are expected to grow steadily for at least the next five years. This is due to a growing recognition, particularly amongst government bodies, that broadband does not only offer high-speed Internet services; it is also important for national infrastructure and will underpin a range of positive social and economic developments. A trans-sector approach to the digital economy is also required in order to advance developments in e-government, e-health, e-education, social media, e-commerce and e-science.
In 2010 almost 25% of the global population will use the Internet (mobile and fixed) – the equivalent of around 1.6 billion people. This is quite remarkable when considering there were only around 350 million users worldwide at the start of the decade.
Table 2 – Worldwide Internet users and annual change – 2000 – 2010
| Year |
Approximate Internet users (billion) |
Annual change |
| 2000 | .35 | 40% |
| 2001 | .45 | 29% |
| 2002 | .60 | 33% |
| 2003 | .72 | 20% |
| 2004 | .84 | 17% |
| 2005 | .94 | 12% |
| 2006 | 1.04 | 11% |
| 2007 | 1.1 | 6% |
| 2008 | 1.2 | 9% |
| 2009 | 1.4 | 17% |
| 2010 (e) | 1.6 | 14% |
(Source: BuddeComm Global – Internet – Search Engines, Websites & Internet User Statistics, 2010)
By the end of 2010 there will be well over 500 million fixed broadband subscribers worldwide and broadband will account for around 35% of all Internet connections.
Table 3 – Worldwide broadband subscribers and annual change – 2005 – 2010
| Year |
Approximate broadband subscribers (million) |
Annual change |
| 2005 | 221 | 36% |
| 2006 | 286 | 29% |
| 2007 | 344 | 20% |
| 2008 | 410 | 19% |
| 2009 | 485 | 19% |
| 2010 (e) | 580 | 20% |
(Source: BuddeComm – Global – Broadband – Statistical Overview)
DSL continues to be the most popular fixed broadband access technology worldwide, with around 60-65% market share. FttX technologies account for around 10-15% market share of broadband connections and cable modem access market share sits at around 20%. Wireless broadband accounts for just over 1%, however this is expected to grow significantly in the next ten years as 4G technology developments quickly progress.
Table 4 – Worldwide DSL subscribers – 2000 – 2010
| Year |
Approximate DSL subscribers (million) |
| 2000 |
3 |
| 2001 |
15 |
| 2002 |
30 |
| 2003 |
55 |
| 2004 |
90 |
| 2005 |
140 |
| 2006 |
185 |
| 2007 |
220 |
| 2008 |
270 |
| 2009 |
315 |
| 2010 (e) |
370 |
(Source: BuddeComm – Global – Broadband – Statistical Overview)
When reflecting upon the last decade; the rapid uptake of mobile technology must be highlighted as an outstanding phenomenon that has forever changed society.
Despite the saturation of the developed markets and economic downturn; mobile subscriber growth continues, mainly due to growth in the emerging markets. By 2011 there should be over 5 billion mobile subscribers worldwide.
Despite 3G technology making inroads, the 2G GSM technology retains the largest market share with well over 4 billion subscribers worldwide.
Table 5 – Worldwide mobile subscribers and annual change – 2000 – 2010
| Year |
Approximate mobile subscribers (billion) |
Annual change |
| 2000 | 0.73 | 55% |
| 2001 | 0.95 | 30% |
| 2002 | 1.13 | 19% |
| 2003 | 1.35 | 19% |
| 2004 | 1.67 | 24% |
| 2005 | 2.14 | 28% |
| 2006 | 2.73 | 28% |
| 2007 | 3.27 | 20% |
| 2008 | 3.91 | 20% |
| 2009 | 4.6 | 18% |
| 2010 (e) | 5.1 | 11% |
(Source: BuddeComm Global – Mobile – Subscriber Statistics, 2010)
The next phase of mobile technology and services rests upon the development of wireless broadband and in particular the 4G technology, Long-Term Evolution (LTE).
In the interim however, mobile users continue to utilise the 3G and 3.5G (HSPA) services on offer, with around 600 million subscribers worldwide.
Table 6 – Worldwide 3G subscribers – 2004 – Q1 2010
| Year |
Approximate 3G subscribers1 (million) |
| 2004 | 0.01 |
| 2005 | 0.09 |
| 2006 | 0.16 |
| 2007 | 0.27 |
| 2008 | 0.46 |
| 2009 | 0.58 |
| Q1 2010 (e)2 | 0.61 |
(Source: BuddeComm Global – Mobile – Subscriber Statistics, 2010)
Notes:
1Includes CDMA2000 1x EV-DO revisions and WCDMA/UMTS. HSPA is included in the table from 2007 onwards.
2Comprised of 450 million WCDMA/UMTS subscriptions including 165 million HSPA. At least 3 times the number of CDMA2000 1xEV-DO.
The success of the smart phone, especially the Apple iPhone, has finally sparked consumer interest in using mobile broadband services. This has resulted in an increase of traffic on existing mobile networks and created a more pressing need to develop 4G technologies, such as LTE, as it can deliver a fully IP-based infrastructure that will allow for mass use of these applications over the network. LTE development took an important step in late 2009 with Ericsson and TeliaSonera launching the world’s first and largest commercial 4G LTE network in Stockholm.
There is no doubt that the next ten years will bring further exiting developments to the increasingly vital telecommunications industry. The foundations for change are already in motion and the continuing deployment of high-speed broadband and developments relating to 4G technology will provide the infrastructure to ignite the new innovations and revolutions of the future.
Kylie Wansink, Senior Analyst – BuddeComm
See Global – Industry – Telecoms Statistics at a Glance.
