After Copenhagen all eyes should move to China.
The fact that they came to an agreement at all was in itself a miracle and a great step forward. Was it enough? No, it will never be enough of course, but it’s a start and it will form the platform for further international discussions on how to improve it.
The interesting twist however, was that there are now two major directions in combating the effects of climate change:
- one based on carbon emission reduction schemes largely promoted by the western nations; and
- one aimed at developing new technologies and new policies that will see carbon reductions happening while moving forwards.
China’s plan of action is interesting as it will (and already is) concentrating on developing new technologies which will see more and more investments in green energy and green economy development – this will permit them to curb their carbon emission as their economy is expanding. Together with India, Brazil and the African states, China saw the Copenhagen plan for carbon reduction as a scheme that would mainly suit the western nations rather than themselves.
China’s plans fit very neatly in with the business plans of many western companies who are seeing the same opportunities moving forwards. These business leaders have overtaken the often negative thought processes of the politicians in their own countries who are still quibbling over what to do and not to do, all mainly aimed at protecting their old industries. The more forward looking people, like China, see this as a great new business opportunity which is going to drive the world economy for many decades ahead. The Chinese are getting on with the job while the west keeps quibbling over protecting their old business, discussing if this is a tax or not and so on. The Australian business delegation to Copenhagen consisted mainly of people lobbying against any far reaching action and will most probably be very happy with the outcome. As is always the case the winners in the end will be those who embrace the change and not those who try to stop it.
At the same time those businesses looking to expand into the green economy might be better to headquarter themselves in China and follow the lead taken by the Chinese government.
So, for the time being, we do see two distinctly different policies moving forwards and we will most likely need both. If indeed the Chinese are forging ahead – in their traditional massive ways – to build a green economy, this certainly will start putting pressure on those who prefer to delay any action at all cost. China is already emerging as the market leader in renewable energy technologies. At the same time, it looks like the western world will still be stuck soul searching for a while, and these two different attitudes could make all the economic difference over coming years.
A good outcome is that, for starters, both camps agreed on an increase of not more than 2C degrees. There is no reason to believe that this target cannot be decreased over time either, because as we move forward we start to learn how to actually do this, or that natural disasters will simply force us to do better. For the time being we do have some faith in the Chinese plan – next to also the carbon reduction schemes – , and there are good reasons to believe that it will be in the national interests of China to follow this plan, not just from an environmental point of view, but also from an economic point of view. It will be interesting to see if the western world will take equally decisive action along the lines of their proposed plans.
Paul Budde
