China to launch 4G in 2010
In February 2008, it was announced that China’s government, carriers and vendors are set to spend more than 70 billion Yuan on developing new wireless technology over the next 12 years. This follows a decision by State Council in December 2007 giving the go-ahead for a “next-generation broadband wireless mobile communications network” project. The project will cover all kinds of wireless development over next 12 to 15 years, including 3G, 3.5G and 4G. The project involves the Ministry of Finance (MoF) investing at least 20 billion Yuan and carriers and equipment firms 50 billion Yuan between them. By comparison, government investment in TD-SCDMA in the past ten years was probably no more than 5 billion Yuan.
TD-SCDMA will be a core technology in the massive project but a more open 4G development framework will be created. Three key areas in the plan will be new high-speed mobile, broadband wireless access and short-range sensor networks.
The International Centre for Wireless Collaborative Research is China’s key R&D institute for mobile communications. The organisation is confident that they will be able to have commercial 4G products available by 2010.
While the country had a bit of a false start with its own 3G developments, the Chinese are fast learners and BuddeComm doesn’t believe that the problems that occurred with 3G will be repeated with 4G. The country has indicated in the past that it is under represented as an industry leader and they certainly have no interest what so ever to keep on following European or American markets in relation to the developments of new industry standards and innovative products.
There is no reason not to believe that in the future key developments will both be born and developed in China. They certainly have the mass power behind them to force the issue if they want so. It is simply a matter of time: it is not a question as to whether China can do it, but more when they will do it.
The European-based 4G developments are more looking at 2010-2015 in order to give the operators the opportunity to recoup their 3G investments. It will be interesting to see how this all will pan out.
The wireless broadband plan is similar to the recent “super-jet” aerospace project, another high-profile technology project leading up to 2020. By 2020 the ministry will have invested in 16 major technology projects, including the next-generation wireless system, spending as much as 1 trillion Yuan. Typically, it will invest more than 10 billion on each project, but is putting 20 billion into the next-generation wireless system.
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