Can telecommunications assist in changing Africa?
We have been following the telecoms markets in Africa for the last 20 years, more intensively over the last decade. So we have been watching this region well before the boom started.
The telecoms boom that is still going on at the moment did happen rather unexpectedly. The continent remains in a state of chaos, with ongoing wars, starvation, massive corruption and every other evil that is likely to stop a society from sustainable long-term development.
Nevertheless, despite all of that, the boom in telecoms did take place. However, what we are seeing now is a slowdown to around 25% penetration. That is also reflected in the forecasts we make for the various countries on this continent. For most, if not all, of the African countries we clearly indicate in our scenario forecasting models that growth can only continue if the political situation stabilises so as to allow for further growth.
I am aware of the dangers inherent in generalisation, but the culture in Africa at present appears to be one of instant gratification. The long-term future looks rather bleak, and so people tend to live for the moment, spending while they can and not making many plans for the future.
Add to that the brain drain that is taking place on this continent. Many of those who have worked hard and achieved a measure of success simply move overseas to continue their careers.
This is, of course, a blow for the development of the African countries, as they lose the people who could have been instrumental in generating positive change.
So, can telecoms assist in breaking through this vicious cycle? I think it can. Telecommunications offers direct access to knowledge and in my opinion access to knowledge is one of the most important keys to the solution.
Like the developing countries in Asia, the mobile phone has become a very powerful tool. Just one mobile phone can lift the economy of the local village by 20%. And it makes the villagers less dependent upon the middlemen.
These middlemen are often corrupt, wielding enormous economic power in regional Africa, as they sell to the people the seeds, tools and other goods they need, and then buy the resulting agricultural products from them. (This situation is not much different from the serfdom that existed in some parts of Germany and Eastern Europe until the mid-19th century.)
The mobile phone opens up the lines of communication and, as we have seen in Asia, it also very quickly provides access to information (Internet). This empowers the people to look after themselves. The sad story, however, is that, while in most Asian countries there is a stable political environment that enables these people to improve their lives, in Africa this is most certainly not yet the case – and this doesn’t seem to be going to change in the foreseeable future.
Very fundamental changes need to take place in Africa in relation to labour, politics, education and so on – basically the same process the western countries went through 100 years ago to create what we now call ‘western civilization’.
So while I believe that telecoms can help, it can only do so much. Unfortunately, therefore, we must stand by our prediction that, at least for the time being, the African boom may be a very limited one.
See also:
Algeria - Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Angola - Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Benin - Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Cameroon - Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Egypt - Telecoms Market Statistics & Forecasts
Ethiopia - Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Gabon - Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Ghana - Telecoms Market Statistics and Forecasts
Global - Analysis - Brief Global predictions for 2007
Kenya - Telecoms Market Statistics & Forecasts
Madagascar - Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Middle East - Mobile Market - Overview & Forecasts
Morocco - Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Nigeria - Telecoms Market Statistics and Forecasts
Rwanda - Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Senegal - Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
South Africa - Telecoms Market Statistics & Forecasts
Swaziland - Telecoms Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Turkey - Convergence, Broadband & Internet Market - Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
