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Algeria ranks 15th worldwide in oil reserves, it has the eighth largest reserves of natural gas and is the fourth largest gas exporter. This has exposed the country more than others to the global economic crisis.

At over 80%, Algeria’s mobile market penetration is one of the highest in Africa. The downward trend of average revenue per user (ARPU) had already appeared to be stabilising in 2008 as subscriber growth flattened, but then it dropped by more than 10% in the first half of 2009.

BuddeComm has released a new report, Algeria – Mobile Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts which contains an overview of the market, analysis and key statistics, profiles of the major players, and scenario forecasts for the period 2009 – 2013 of subscriber growth, ARPU, and the mobile services market size in terms of revenue, illustrated by seven tables and three charts.

However, the report also shows that the market still has enormous potential, if the mobile networks succeed in ending their price war and transforming themselves into converged service providers, absorbing much of the broadband Internet market on top of the mobile voice market. The analysis can be used as a model for other developing markets where subscriber growth is approaching saturation and operators are trying to reverse the downward trend in ARPU.

For more information, see:

Algeria – Mobile Market Overview, Statistics & Forecasts.

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Hamilton-based Velocity Networks and the Hamilton Network have formed an alliance with lines company WEL Networks to propagate fibre deployment in New Zealand’s Waikato region.

The three parties hope that the government’s regional broadband focus will result in a productivity and economic boost for the region.

They feel they know the local needs when it comes to fast communication networks and that their working together can get ultra fast broadband to more people and businesses throughout the Waikato in a speedier timeframe than could have been achieved by traditional telco companies.

They are ready to invest in local and rural infrastructure which in many cases, is already in place and ready to use. The regional roll out will model itself from the 45km Hamilton Fibre Network.

See also:

New Zealand – Ultra-fast broadband network

New Zealand – FttH Planning

New Zealand – Broadband – Statistics, Overview & Providers

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The separation of Telstra’s wholesale business from retail means a fair go and a positive future for the reseller market according to Telecommunications resellers.

In a separated environment, Telstra Wholesale should be in a position to offer its resale customers the full range of Telstra retail services at a fair price.

It is felt that Telstra Wholesale has been limited for far too long by only being able to offer its resale customers a limited suite of ‘Value Added Service’ products at full retail rates leaving the small telco service providers who service the business community little room to make a margin.

Under the current model resellers are required to wear the costs of acquisition, service set up, support and billing for these services. Despite this, resellers are not in a position to provide the products and services at the same retail price while at the same time make a fair margin.

It is predicted that services and products such as line hunt, fax duet, calling number display and calls to 13 and 1300 numbers should now be accessible to resellers with a fair margin under the rules of separation. It may also be that Telstra Wholesale would be in a better position to resell the Next G mobile services to their wholesale customers, which they currently cannot do.

See also: Australia – Competition and Regulation Issues – 2008-2009

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Cisco is creating the Cisco Smart Grid Ecosystem to help accelerate the adoption of IP for utility communications networks. The members of the ecosystem include system integrators, technology vendors, power and utility integrators, service providers, and other vendors who represent various elements of the smart grid infrastructure, Cisco says.

The ecosystem currently includes 27 companies, including Accenture, Cable&Wireless, Capgemini, EMC, General Electric, Oracle, SAIC, Siemens, Verizon and Wipro.

They also formed a Smart Grid Technical Advisory Board made up of utility and energy companies from around the world. The board is intended to help Cisco align its product direction to customers’ requirements.

The company is already working with Canadian utility ENMAX to help accelerate the deployment of Cisco Smart Grid and related energy management technologies.

They are also providing security services to utilities and participating in the ZigBee Alliance to help standardize IP-based communications within the energy industry.

See also:

Smart Cities, Buildings & Communities

Smart Grids – Energy & Environmental Issues

Smart Grids – Global Overview & Activities

Smart Grids – Grid IT – Where Energy Meets Comms

Smart Grids and the Communications Revolution

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According to a report from Deloitte published in September 2009, called ‘National Broadband Network – A user’s perspective’ now is the time for consumers and business operators to be involved in the public debate and planning of Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN).

Until now, the discussions have revolved around the building and financing of this major infrastructure project. The focus needs to now equally turn to the groups that will ultimately drive the project’s success.

The report found that the NBN is likely to bring a number of unexpected issues to the surface. Legislation will also be progressively required to cope with a converged digital economy where issues of privacy, service provision, access regimes, regulation, competition and security are redefined as a consequence of faster broadband speeds.

Report Highlights:

• Many of the likely end-user demands that should be factored into the design, construction and delivery of the NBN
• Analyses the NBN’s short, medium and long-term opportunities
• Provides relevant international examples of how broadband infrastructure is used overseas
• Discusses the uses of the NBN in ‘smart home’ automation, e-health, smart metering, telecommunications, television (including hardware and software), home phones, video conferencing technology, education and commerce.

See also:

Australia – National Broadband Network – Overview & Analysis

Australia – National Broadband Network – Critical Considerations

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AT&T has entered into the smart grid market by offering up its network to utilities seeking two-way communication with their customers. The company is realising that the real market opportunity could come from providing services on top of the network to their utility customers.

They provide the cellular technology in devices for Cooper Power Systems and SmartSynch. But the companies who are interested in smart grids are interested in more than just embedded network connectivity. Some of the new services AT&T will have to offer, include roaming, time-of-use billing, tracking of mobile devices and plug-in hybrid electric.

The company is not interested in reselling electricity, it would sell meters direct to its utility customers if they request it. They are also open to acting as the prime contractor, or even a subcontractor to a big player like General Electric, to bring in partners and create an end-to-end solution for the utility.

See also:

Smart Cities, Buildings & Communities

Smart Grids – Energy & Environmental Issues

Smart Grids – Global Overview & Activities

Smart Grids – Grid IT – Where Energy Meets Comms

Smart Grids and the Communications Revolution

USA – Utilities Broadband – Smart Grids & Broadband over Power Line (BPL)

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Over the last years the telecommunications market has been regulated on the basis of operating telephony services. Internet access has been added to this in recent years but it is still essentially linked to telephone line regulations.

While major societal changes have been happening, since the 1980s at least, very few policy changes were made around the telecoms industry to enable it to play a key role in these changes.

Key telecoms reforms in the mid- and late 1990s still refused to take a more multi-media – or perhaps what we now call a trans-sector – approach towards the industry. It appeared that the politicians, economists and bureaucrats involved in policy-making thought that the telecoms environment would continue forever in the same way that it had existed for a hundred years, and that other political and economic changes would not have any influence on it.

This all began to change with the arrival of the Internet, and, in fact, the Internet became the infrastructure that was used to facilitate the social and economic changes that were occurring in the broader society. The extremely rapid adoption of these new technologies was a clear indication that the market had been held back and that this was not a matter of lack of demand, as the incumbent industry continues to preach.

It is clear that the broader society and economy is now forcing change upon the telecoms industry, something they are not used to, as they have always taken a very inward-looking approach to their own affairs.

This inward-looking approach has resulted in the telecoms industry missing out on many of the new developments – the new digital media companies have taken the lead here, both in relation to fixed and mobile technology developments.

Even in countries where telcos are taking a leadership role in this (KPN in the Netherlands and Telstra in Australia) there remain many naysayers around them.

The industry is now facing the possibility of another debacle by denying the need for reform and a trans-sector approach towards the industry. This development, like the previous ones, will be unstoppable and other companies are already working on e-health, e-education, energy and a mass of other applications. A search on the Internet shows the extent of this movement.

Yet the industry and many directly involved with them are is kicking and screaming and claiming that there is no business case for this – just as they did for mobile data, SMS, Internet services, broadband access and so on.

Unless the industry starts to show leadership other ‘Googles’ will arrive to look after the tsunami of trans-sector services that will flood the telecoms infrastructure. Nations all round the world are facing healthcare, education and environmental crises and none of these can be solved without new ICT infrastructure developments.

A major concern is that the companies that don’t believe there is a business case for these services are at the same time the ones designing the infrastructure for this digital economy. Despite their reluctance to accept this new environment they obviously don’t shy away from designing it – they are engineers and designing infrastructure is what they love to do.

However, there is an urgent need for the new world to be created with the digital economy and the trans-sector approach in mind. We (as a society and not just the telco engineers) need to make strategic decisions about what we want to do with the infrastructure and then build it to facilitate those objectives. See also http://www.buddeblog.com.au/nbn-co-bringing-us-to-the-next-stage/

There is growing concern in the wider business world – including the healthcare and energy sectors – that the digital economy and the trans-sector approach are not being taken into account and that the new infrastructure will be designed according to the age-old concept of traditional telecommunications.

It is essential that the broader society and business community become involved in the design of this critical national infrastructure so as to ensure that their sectors can utilise the infrastructure to their own advantage, not simply to the advantage of the telecoms companies involved.

Paul Budde

See also:

• Global – Analysis – Business Opportunities beyond Structural Telecom Changes
• Global – Investing in the Communications Revolution
• Global – Analysis – Wholesale Industry in 2009
• Global – Economic Crisis – Strategic Developments for Comms during the Crisis
• Global – Economic Crisis – Strategic Vision for Comms after the Crisis
• Global – Infrastructure Policies to Stimulate the Economy
• Global – Internet – Net Neutrality Analysis
• Global – National Broadband & Trans-sector developments in Australia & New Zealand
• Global – Trans-sector strategies – an empirical approach
• Global Next Generation Telecoms – FttH and Trans-Sector Strategies
• Global Recovery will Depend on Trans-Sector Vision
• Smart Cities, Buildings & Communities

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Those who have followed the telecoms debate in Australia over the last few years will certainly have noticed that BuddeComm and Telstra have crossed swords on many occasions.

Our differences have been at a philosophical level.

Telstra saw that its obligation to look after its shareholders required it to operate on a commercial basis, and so to pursue strategies that concentrated on the more profitable elements of the market, through its vertically-integrated operation.

We at BuddeComm, on the other hand, believed that, obligations shareholders aside, the national interest was also a compelling factor. Telecoms is essential infrastructure that underpins our economy and our society and it is therefore necessary to also view it from that national interest point of view.

However, throughout this stand-off period we maintained that Telstra’s cooperation was vital when the telecoms infrastructure for the future was being created. It would be a waste of resources, time and energy if we had to develop two different future scenarios, one for the country and one for Telstra. That simply doesn’t make sense.

Even before the new CEO was appointed I sensed a change in attitude – a tendency towards a more inclusive future plan – and I made contact with the company in an effort to establish industry dialogue. When David Thodey was appointed as the new CEO this initial contact was firmed up and it very quickly became clear that we had far more in common than we had differences. The trans-sector approach towards the new NBN, in particular, was very much shared by Telstra.

This led to the industry Roundtable in September, where Telstra was represented by David Thodey, as well as by Geoff Booth, Group Managing Director NBN Engagement Telstra; Hugh Bradlow, Chief Technology Officer, Telstra; and David Quilty, Group Managing Director Public Policy & Communications, Telstra.

Again it became evident, and now in a wider industry forum, that there was plenty of opportunity to work together. There was a genuine interest on both sides to look for industry cooperation, especially in relation to showing ICT leadership to other sectors such as healthcare, education, energy, environment, etc.

The conclusion reached was that because of the inward-looking nature of the industry over previous years it had failed to engage with other sectors and to assist them in developing plans that would allow these sectors to undergo the massive transformation processes they are currently experiencing – something that can’t be done without ICT. In order to facilitate these changes a different attitude is required from the telecoms industry.

With the assistance of Telstra – and, more importantly, with the support of the company towards the vision for the NBN and the trans-sector concept behind this project – the industry can now speak with one voice on these strategic issues. This will greatly assist the industry to communicate with other sectors to provide them with ICT leadership on how we can assist in this transformation process.

Obviously both Telstra and BuddeComm have encountered scepticism about the change that is taking place in their relationship with each other; it is understandable that some – especially those not integrally involved – find it rather hard to believe a situation like this can improve so quickly.

However, there is a genuine understanding at Telstra that, based on the NBN, we can increase the size of the pie, and that a whole range of new business opportunities are on the horizon. Certainly this will take time, but with a combined effort it should be possible to successfully negotiate these changes.

BuddeComm also strongly believes that, with the future vision for the industry now being a shared one, many of the operational issues can be resolved using a more business-style approach, within the regulatory parameters proposed by the government. Once the broad outlines of the future of the industry are clear at a strategic level business decisions need to be made that will allow both Telstra and the industry to arrive at the established goal over the next five to ten years. Obviously there will be many headaches along the way but, if the process is grounded in a long-term strategic plan, such difficulties can be resolved.

It is also in the interest of Telstra and the rest of the industry to make the necessary business decisions, within the parameters set by the government but without too much regulatory or government interference. The last thing the industry needs is to become a political football in Parliament.

Paul Budde

See also:

• Australia – Trans-sector thinking leading to smart communities
• Australia – National Broadband Network – Overview & Analysis
• Australia – National Broadband Network – Critical Considerations

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The financial crisis has led to a major rethink on the way that the various political, social and economic systems operate. Instead of repairing broken systems, new approaches are being developed that are better-suited to the current environment.

Increasingly the market is recognising the importance of telecoms within a range of social and economic applications. As a result telecoms investments now play a key role in most economic stimulus packages. At the same time Internet access and digital media depend on good telecoms infrastructure, and this will drive developments and opportunities in the market.

For the next few years mobile will continue to be dominated by voice and SMS. Data access will increase in importance but the current networks are still not suitable for mass market mobile media. In 2010 infrastructure issues will be paramount – issues such a fibre-based National Broadband Network and wireless networks are the all-important foundation for the digital economy.

With government involvement it will be possible to use the telecommunications networks for the national good. BuddeComm has been involved in the generation of government policies around open networks, structural separation and trans-sectoral developments on three continents. In the report we discuss some of the high-level strategic developments occurring as a result of the economic crisis.

At the core of new policy-making is trans-sector thinking – looking across sectors to create synergy – and the Australian government is leading the world in this. The report discusses in detail the opportunities within the ICT industries to utilise new telecoms networks for e-health, e-education, smart grids (managing renewables, saving energy), etc.

This way of thinking applies across infrastructure projects – looking at the potential synergies between the building of roads, sewerage systems, water and gas pipe networks as well as telecoms and electricity networks. This also ties in with the initiatives the government has announced since the NBN.

And eventually this leads to the concept of smart communities, the development of connected and sustainable communities based on intelligent infrastructure such as broadband (FttH) and smart grids. But trans-sector policies and strategies need to be developed before these smart communities can be built. They can’t be built out of the silo structures that currently dominate our thinking; they require a holistic approach, which includes environmental issues such buildings that are self-sufficient in relation to energy, community-based ‘exchanges’ for renewable energy and e-cars, and the delivery of e-health, e-education, e-government services in addition to digital media and Internet services.

The report discusses and provides examples of some of the developments taking place around the world towards building smart cities and communities.

Australia is taking a leadership role in these developments. The decision from the government to invest $43 billion in a FttH NBN is a clear indication that it believes broadband infrastructure is a collective good. With its trans-sector multiplier effect it delivers massive social and economic benefits. There is no other way – if you want to build a digital economy you need FttH, and for that to work it can only be built by a utility. Early indications are that Telstra is going to cooperate are very promising.

The new broadband plan offers unprecedented opportunities for Australia – not just in relation to telecommunications, broadband and the Internet, but also for a range of new applications, most of which we can’t even envisage as this point in time. The report addresses the enormous opportunities that this infrastructure, as a utility, has to offer. It also covers the essential high-level issues that need to be addressed.

One critical point is that this needs to be perceived as the infrastructure for the digital economy; to simply view it as an upgrade to ADSL broadband would be a grave mistake. A section of the report includes comments from the Digital Economy Industry Working Group and our International (Obama Team) BigThink Strategies Group.

With so much emphasis being placed on advances in the fixed network it is easy to overlook the enormous developments that are simultaneously taking place around wireless technology. The mobile communications market in Australia has been shaken up by the merger of the third and fourth largest mobile network operators, Vodafone and Hutchison Australia, to form VHA. If VHA is successful in the longer term it may challenge both Optus and Telstra in an attempt to become the largest mobile service provider in Australia.

The extent to which Australia suffers an economic slowdown in 2010 will have a significant impact on the growth of the mobile communications market. Competition may intensify between mobile operators, resulting in lower mobile call charges for customers. In mid-2009 Woolworths launched a major new mobile virtual network providing low-cost prepaid services. Voice calls are increasingly moving onto the mobile networks at the expense of the fixed-line networks and mobile broadband has grown rapidly in Australia in 2009. These trends are likely to continue into 2010 as mobile tariffs fall further and certain customer segments reduce their use of fixed-line voice and data services.

With these massive changes underway and as it becomes unshackled from the operators’ portals that have dominated it for a decade – all without having made any significant inroads into the content use of mobile users – the mobile media market is set to change forever.

The new capped data packages, fuelled by further competition, will see a total revamp of this market. It will no longer be based on portals but on direct services by content and services providers via open source phones and mobile-friendly Internet-based services. The next step will be the arrival of micro-payment services, like those being developed in countries such as Kenya, Philippines and India. This will create a new e-payment system for the mobile market, away from the hefty charges the carriers put on PSMS payment facilities. However, there is a limit to the mobile networks’ spectrum capacity and we will have to wait for true IP-based wireless broadband to become available before the operators can deliver fully on the promise of mass market mobile broadband.

Last but not least, the social media are receiving widespread attention and the events in Iran have propelled Twitter right to forefront. Social media developments are fascinating and exciting; they show the great potential of the new communication and information tools that are becoming available, thanks to the Internet, Web 2.0, email and broadband infrastructure. However, for these new social media tools to succeed they need to be totally integrated into our daily communication. Current social media sites such as Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn, Plaxo, Twitter, YouTube, Wikipedia, Google and Second Life are important incubators for these new services; they provide us with new tools and allow us to experiment.

For more information on the new BuddeComm report see:

Australia – Telecoms Market Analyses – Australia leading telecoms beyond the crisis

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All the major mobile broadband providers in Australia, Telstra, Optus and VHA (Vodafone and 3) have recently completed upgrades to their mobile networks based on HSPA technologies. High-speed mobile broadband coverage has also been expanded to numerous regional centres in Australia in 2009. In many of these centres broadband over mobile networks is the only alternative to relatively expensive services provided by the largest Australian telecommunications company, Telstra.

As such, competition between fixed-line broadband operators and mobile operators in Australia is likely to intensify in the second half of 2009 and 2010. The outcome of this battle will be critical to the broader domestic telecommunications industry. If mobile broadband operators can effectively compete with fixed-line competitors in providing affordable, moderate-speed broadband, then this will increase downward pressure on revenue earned by fixed-line operators over the next five years.

This report provides an analysis of the prospects for the various mobile network operators. It also examines mobile operators’ efforts with respect to content. The statistical sections of this report provide selected data on SMS and other mobile media services.

Key highlights:

• Globally, the Australian mobile wireless market holds quite a unique position in 2009. Fixed-line broadband is less developed in Australia than in other western countries. Its availability is not yet widespread, and speeds are lower than those available to consumers in other developed markets. High prices, and in particular restrictive data caps, are making these fixed-line broadband services less attractive.
• Although prices have fallen over the last two years, and smaller operators Vodafone and 3 have initially led the market in this respect, services still remain too expensive for the majority of the mass market. It certainly is taking off among the business market and the top-end of the residential market, particularly among professional people.
• Mobile data traffic grew steadily in 2008 and this trend is continuing in 2009 albeit at a slightly slower rate. Growth in 2009 will continue to be driven by increasing take-up of capped mobile data tariffs offered by all the major network operators and the increasing availability of compelling mobile web services and content.
• Mobile web centric devices have grown more popular in Australia and the success of the iPhone has generated a competitive response from rival handset makers which is further stimulating the market.
• The merger of Vodafone and 3′s operations in Australia 2009 will create a significant third force in the mobile broadband market. The combined firm brings together two companies each with a strong mobile Internet brand and a focus on providing competitively priced mobile broadband. Both are popular among the youth segments of the market and combined may be a larger force in the business market too. As such VHA, as the merged firm will be known, is likely to outperform industry peers Optus and Telstra.
• The majority of Australian mobile Internet traffic in 2009 will remain to mobile operator portals and affiliated content providers such as free-to-air and pay TV broadcasters.
• However, in the longer term data usage trends are likely to be heavily influenced by handsets. In 2009 and 2010 a number of devices competing with the Apple iPhone will be introduced by rival handset makers, in particular Nokia, LG, Samsung and HTC.
• Apple’s iPhone and Google’s mobile web applications pose a clear threat to telecommunications operators. For over a decade mobile phone operators have refused to provide better business models that would see their users moving over from traditional voice to data-based usage. Now events may overtake them as mobile web service providers gain control of the subscriber by providing increasingly innovative, useful and affordable services.
• With respect to advertising on mobiles, the key advantage mobile web media has over certain traditional formats is the ability to target advertising based on the specific profile of the viewer. The hope is that targeted advertisements will be more effective than the non-focussed equivalent, enabling advertisers to make more effective use of their advertising budgets while simultaneously enabling the industry to command a higher margin when placing advertisements.

BuddeComm’s Mobile Broadband and Media annual publication profiles critical elements of the mobile broadband and mobile media sectors in Australia. It provides an overview of the major mobile broadband technologies in use in Australia, as well as analysis and other information relating to the use of mobile broadband media. For more information see: Australia – Mobile Broadband & Media

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