Archive for March, 2009

Warnings from Freedom to Connect

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

Warnings from Freedom to Connect

Several of my colleagues are at the Freedom to Connect conference in the USA (http://freedom-to-connect.net/). Many scientists are warning that the planet may be close to a tipping point where we will experience run away global warming (see Andy Revkin’s recent blog from the NYTimes for a summary of several studies on this issue http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/28/tipping-points-and-the-climate-challenge).

We simply may not have the luxury time for small incremental adaptations to address the challenge of global climatic disruption. One of the major ways we can reduce our CO2 footprint is through de-materialization where we replace physical products with virtual ones delivered over the Internet. Some studies indicated that we can reduce C02 emissions by as much as 20% with materialization. I argue that dematerialization can be further amplified through carbon rewards (instead of Carbon taxes) where consumers are rewarded with a variety of virtual products in exchange of reducing their carbon footprint in other walks of their lives. But to take advantage of this opportunity of dematerialization we need open high speed broadband networks everywhere. Hence the importance of conferences such as Freedom to Connect.

 

See also: 2008 Global Utilities – Environmental Focus for Smart Grids

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EnergyAustrlia’s next step towards a smart grid

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

EnergyAustrlia’s next step towards a smart grid

In March 2009, EnergyAustralia launched a $3.2 million plan to implement an energy network monitoring and control solution, a key element within  the company’s overall intelligent network program, the Distribution Monitoring and Control (DM&C) project involves the roll-out of 12,000 sensing devices throughout the electricity distribution network, creating a smart grid.

Under the initial agreement, IBM will design and build the system IT architecture to support the project, in which sensing devices will connect with the energy utility’s operational systems using a combination of fourth generation and existing technologies.

The project will enable the utility to deliver energy more efficiently and reliably, and allow a greater number and range of environmental solutions to be integrated into the electricity network such as renewable energy.

It will reduce outages through faster fault location and preventative maintenance and, to work towards managing distributed energy sources such as solar and storage devices.

This project is an important part of the company’s initial investment of $170 million in its smart network rollout.

 

See also:-

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Global policies – Copenhagen Climate Council

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

Global policies – Copenhagen Climate Council

The Copenhagen Climate Council comprises 30 global leaders from business, science, and policy, dedicated to create awareness of the importance of COP15, the UN conference to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009.  At this conference world leaders will meet to agree on a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol.

At present this Kyoto Protocol regulates CO2 emissions from a select group of mostly developed countries. If the world’s nations are to decide upon a new agreement before the Kyoto Protocol expires 2009 is the final opportunity to do so.

A global climate change agreement is necessary so that we can limit the negative man-made effects on the climatic system for future generations.

Climate changes in themselves are nothing new. What is new is that the atmospheric concentrations of man-made emissions have increased dangerously in recent decades, and that global warming is happening significantly faster than previously anticipated.

As it is a late-comer in the international debate on climate change it would be quite a challenge to get the USA to pass legislation before the December 2009 meeting. But the important issue is that America is now also firmly committed to move in this direction, and they are supportive of the Copenhagen meeting.

The other late-comer, Australia, might just be ready with its legislation before that date.

China’s position is more fluid, and quite complex. Beijing has certainly made a verbal commitment to CO2 emission reduction, but the political structure of China makes it very difficult to implement such policies beyond the east coast. The good thing is that China increasingly wishes to show international leadership and that it is therefore becoming more and more engaged with the wider international community.

Like other nations, China is seeking to uncouple GDP growth from emissions growth. It does not want to be the spoiler in achieving an effective treaty, but it still takes a hardline position in negotiations.

Within the context of the current financial crisis it is important for stimulus packages to be constructed in such a way as to avoid locking in legacy industries; China has done well here in focussing its stimulus spending on retooling.

With the USA on board it will now be possible for agreement to be reached on the treaty. UN General Secretary Ban Ki-Moon has convened a meeting of heads of government in September 2009 to try to get some kind of consensus.

However, it is quite possible that the Copenhagen Treaty will not be able to deliver the outcome that most people would like to see. The world, individual countries and individual industries are still very much silo focussed and it is extremely difficult to generate the trans-sector thinking that is essential if we really want to find solutions for this extremely complex problem.

Rather than looking for a trans-sector approach these silos will most probably become entangled with each other. The most obvious problem area would be trade issues, especially if countries begin to introduce carbon tariffs, which would lead to the kinds of boundary problems we have discussed many times. There is a very good chance that the current system will lead to a whole new series of trade wars.

Another obvious entanglement will be between climate change and national security issues, in both the medium and the long term.

For further information, see separate report: Smart Grids – Energy & Environmental Issues.

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Financial Crisis and Economic Stimulus – Focus on Africa

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

The effect of the crisis on Africa’s booming telecom sector is expected to be moderate and only temporary. While much of the developed world is already in recession, GDP growth in Africa is forecast to remain positive at between 2.5 and 3.5%. The outstanding growth opportunities in Africa’s still underdeveloped telecoms markets will quickly re-enter the spotlight of investors.

While the banks’ tightened lending practices will affect the ability of some operators in Africa to fund their network expansion, vendor financing – particularly from China – will continue to play a dominating role. China remains keen to establish a presence on the continent and is offering very favourable terms.

In the longer term, rising food and commodity prices will have an impact on consumer spending for telecom services. But many operators in Africa have already adapted to low ARPU levels and are still very profitable. In fact, the ARPU decline has recently come to a halt in many markets and even risen again in some cases, driven by streamlined operations and the introduction of new services, in particular mobile broadband Internet access.

Peter Lange, Senior Analyst – Africa

For more information, see separate reports:

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BigThink – how to move beyond the crisis

Monday, March 30th, 2009

The worldwide economic crisis is certainly a worrisome event, but now, six months on, it is becoming clear that we will survive it.

There are still tough times and a great deal of work ahead but we do have a good understanding of what needs to be done, and that is a major positive.

It is natural for people to be emotional in a time of crisis – cautious about what they do, what they spend, etc – but a more optimistic approach will go a long way towards restoring a positive economic environment. Admittedly there are risks involved in adopting a confident attitude in today’s financial climate, but contemplate the alternative.

I am taking my lead here from President Obama. He says that, while this is a severe crisis, its also a time when we can make big changes for the future. And this applies particularly to America, the land of the free market – free as in ‘no rules apply to me’ – where massive changes need to be implemented to the governance of the country. To do this will take a decade or more, but the longer we wait to start the process the longer it will take to get out of this mess.

In order to make this happen the global economy will need a great deal of support – people doing that bit extra, beyond pessimistic cautiousness. We all need to look for opportunities to move forward and now is the time to clean house and make plans for a better future.

It is also the time to address faltering systems such as healthcare, social services and the environment. But let us go further – a fraction of the trillions of dollars that are thrown around could also be used to help alleviate poverty in Africa. Let’s look beyond our own borders – in other words we need to Think Big.

This was exactly the message that I received from the Obama Team back in November last year, after they won the election. I was closely connected to one of the senior people in the Transition Team and I had suggested to him that perhaps we should provide the Obama Transition Telco Team with an international view on the American telecoms situation.

He took me up on the suggestion and we were asked to prepare some BigThink reports (they presented that title to us). We have produced four reports and a fifth one is under development. They are:

  • Plans for the transition of the US telecom industry
  • Costings and open network issues in relation to FttH deployments
  • Innovation networks: where e-science and telecom meet
  • Open access
  • Trans-sectoral thinking (under construction)

For this project I headed up a team of around 30 international experts from eight different countries.

It was a rare experience – to be able to really participate in the shaping of global strategies; to take part in new ways of thinking and present ideas to a team of people who were engaged and keen to listen.

Those of you who have been following the open access debate in the USA will have noticed that this is now a hot topic, and I feel we can rightly claim to have had a small amount of influence in this debate, thanks to our international expert team. We have also been asked to file a slightly different version of the report with the FCC. So let’s see what will happen with open access in the USA.

Totally new in my experience of the American people is that genuine interest, at a government level, is now being shown in what other countries are doing, and I have even been able to establish some further bilateral contacts between countries on some of the very specific issues that came out of these reports. This is perhaps the most exciting element of all; we are starting to work together – not just through official international relationships but through direct person-to-person contact, utilising the capabilities we now have with emails, wikis, etc.

It is mindboggling to be part of an international team of such calibre. The amount of vision and strategic thinking coming into the group from various different disciplines is incredibly powerful, all directed at the specific topic addressed in each BigThink report.

The team consists of truly national and international leaders and having these people participate in these not-for-fee projects is very refreshing indeed.

In the upcoming trans-sector report we will address the multiplier effect that telecoms infrastructure has to offer to other sectors such as healthcare, education, environment, suitability, transport, etc. In this BigThink report the focus is on building smart connected and sustainable communities.

While economic affordability is a key issue within the context of the economic crisis I am convinced that through trans-sector thinking, and utilisation of that multiplier effect, we can deliver these services at less cost, most of the time within the already existing budgets for these sectors. The same by the ways applies to climate changes and the biggest challenge at the Copenhagen conference in December will be silo thinking.

People are a far bigger problem than money. We need to break down the silo mentality, and that will be our greatest challenge. It can only be done through leadership from the top, but those at the top are listening, so I hope we can make a positive contribution to these changes.

In order to move forward we need to use more flexible and pragmatic economics, based on both market dynamics and social values. This is not something new – people like Adam Smith spoke of it back in 1776.

It is just that we have lost sight of some of these governance issues over the last few decades. We need to revive these and use our modern knowledge and expertise around social and economic developments, as well as the new technologies that allow for easier international cooperation, widespread people-power involvement and new, better and cheaper ways of fixing old problems.

Paul Budde

See also:

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MercadoLibre, the eBay of Latin America

Monday, March 30th, 2009

MercadoLibre, the eBay of Latin America

Although often called the eBay of Latin America, MercadoLibre could be considered a combination of eBay and Amazon. In fact, about 80% of the items sold on MercadoLibre are new, and although the auction format is still used, fixed price sales account for some 90% of all transactions. In early 2009, MercadoLibre had 34 million registered users, up from 25 million one year earlier. MercadoLibre also has an e-payment service called Mercado Pago, which is similar to Paypal and is becoming increasingly popular throughout the region.

MercadoLibre, the leading online marketplace for Latin America, operates in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela. It facilitates the buying and selling of a vast range of items, including books, electronics, clothes, furniture, household items, cars, industrial machinery, office equipment – even real estate. There is also an impressive section on classified services, from aestheticians to lawyers to building contractors.

MercadoLibre’s major selling items are:

  • computers;
  • digital cameras;
  • electronics;
  • audio and video;
  • mobile phones;
  • cars;
  • motorcycles and other vehicles. 

MercadoLibre began in Argentina in 1999, as a purely auction-based marketplace modelled on eBay. The company had a rocky start, only barely surviving the recession of 2000-2002. Since then, however, MercadoLibre has become a very successful business; from a mere US$5.6 million in 2003, company revenues have been increasing exponentially, to reach US$85.1 million in 2007 and US$137.0 million in 2008. Net income for 2008 was US$18.8 million, an increase of 94.1% compared with $9.7 million in 2007. The company has been trading on the NASDAQ stock exchange since August 2007.

MercadoLibre’s success, however, has given it a quasi-monopoly in Latin America. Between 2005 and 2008, MercadoLibre acquired all the operations of DeRemate, the only other online marketplace in the region capable of providing meaningful competition.

 

See also: Argentina – Convergence, Broadband & Internet Market – Overview, Statistics & Forecasts

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WiMedia – 802.15.3a for personal networks

Monday, March 30th, 2009

WiMedia – 802.15.3a for personal networks

The IEEE 802.15.3 specification for 2.45GHz short range wireless personal networking was approved in June 2003. It specifies the Physical (PHY) radio signal and Media Access Control (MAC) aspects of an ad-hoc wireless networking system, between up to 245 devices, at data rates of 11, 22, 33, 44 and 55Mb/s over three to four non-overlapping channels. The higher level protocols are said to implement ‘security, privacy, data integrity, mutual-entity authentication, and data-origin authentication for consumer applications’.

This system is intended for consumer audio and video applications, with ranges up to 50 metres. The aim is to link computers, home sound equipment, televisions, etc. without the need for cables or the need for complex configuration by the user.

The WiMedia Alliance [www.wimedia.org] planned to promote and test products that operate with 802.15.3 – and in the future another higher-speed wireless technology, most likely UWB. The potential for another use of the crowded 2.45GHz band, and another set of wireless communications hardware, to confuse and divide both the market and equipment manufacturers is obvious (WiFi, WiMAX and WiMedia), but the WiMedia Alliance is confident that a new technology is needed to meet the audio-visual needs of consumers. Three of the primary concerns that are not apparently sufficiently addressed in existing standards such as 802.11x are Quality of Service (QoS – assuring delivery of data), low latency and battery life in portable equipment.

 

In March 2005, the WiMedia Alliance merged with the Ultra-Wideband (UWB) Multiband OFDM Alliance (MBOA). In March 2006 the Bluetooth SIG (Special Interest Group) [www.bluetooth.org] chose MBOA/WiMedia as the physical layer for its future high-speed radio standard. In 2006, after a protracted impasse between supporters of the OFDM approach and another – now abandoned – “Direct Sequence” approach, 802.15.3a was disbanded.

 

We discuss WiMedia and Ultra-Wideband (UWB) in: Technology – Wireless – Broadband 3 – Ultra-Wideband-&-WirelessHD-60GHz.

 

See also:-

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Paul Budde leads team for Open Network push in USA

Friday, March 27th, 2009

An international team of telecommunications experts has weighed in the current debates on US broadband policies. Their “big picture” idea — open networks — can, if brought into practice, bring positive and transformative change to America’s communications infrastructure, and, indeed, the large swaths of social and economic activity that rely on that infrastructure, particularly in the underserved rural areas.

“We are not suggesting some radical new experiment in regulatory philosophy,” said Paul Budde, leader of the Big Think team. “The idea of open networks is already deeply embedded in the U.S. communications regulatory framework. We are suggesting a return to traditional regulatory concepts and values that have served the U.S. well for many decades, both in communications regulation and elsewhere.”

The 19-page report outlines how open networks can:

  • Unlock the potential for economic growth
  • Operate with greater efficiency and permit higher levels of beneficial economic and technological activity
  • Encourage increased productive use of all infrastructures
  • Utilize principles that are simpler and more transparent and result in less regulatory requirements
  • Require significantly less public funding
  • Provide a cost effective means for building expensive rural infrastructure

The report has been produced by an international team of telecommunications experts from the following countries: America, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom.  This group is composed of strategists, economists, attorneys, technologists, representatives of national and international telecommunication organisations and telecommunications company directors.

The full paper is available at: Big Think Strategies FCC

For more information and/or comments from experts: Paul Budde, http://cognition.budde.com.au/CMSContent/VersionControl/paul@budde.com.au

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Smartphones

Friday, March 27th, 2009

A new report by Infonetics ‘Mobile/WiFi Phones and Subscribers’ has found Smartphones are evolving quickly, and differentiation is becoming increasingly based on software and OS rather than form factor. Smartphones still compete on hardware features that support key apps like photography or video viewing, but software and applications that enable a user’s preferred mobile uses have an increasing influence on device selection.

Highlights from the report:

  • The economic recession had a notable impact on the worldwide mobile phones market in the latter half of 2008, ending in flat manufacturer revenue growth for the year ($156 billion), as consumers and enterprises cut device spending
  • Infonetics forecasts an 8% drop in the total number of mobile phones sold in 2009, to 1.1 billion worldwide (down from 1.2 billion in 2008), in line with predictions from Nokia, among others
  • Smartphones were the best-performing segment of the mobile phones market in 2008 and the only segment to show unit and revenue growth in the second half of the year as the world economy entered recession
  • Bucking the general trend, smartphones are expected to out-perform the downturn and show modest growth in 2009, and will be the only mobile phone segment to maintain annual revenue growth over the next five years, and the only to post double-digit annual revenue growth from 2011 through 2013
  • Market penetration of higher-end phones is driven by accelerating HSPA deployments in North America, Western Europe, and developed regions in Asia Pacific
  • As a proportion of the total mobile phone market, W-CDMA gained a couple of percentage points in 2008 at the expense of CDMA2000, and GSM remained proportionately flat
  • Nokia maintained its clear leadership of total mobile phone market share in 2008, due to its established brand, stability of the newly-acquired Symbian OS, and its strong visibility in multiple segments (low-end, high-end/feature phone, smartphone)
  • Samsung strengthened its solid second position in 2008, increasing its lead over Sony-Ericsson
  • LG overtook Motorola in 2008 to claim fourth spot in worldwide mobile phone revenue market share
  • Symbian retains market leadership of the smartphone operating system (OS) market, followed by BlackBerry, which regained its #2 spot after being overtaken by the surge in iPhone units in the third quarter of 2008

See also:

Technology – Mobile 1 – 2G – Introduction & IS-136 TDMA

Technology – Mobile 2 – 2G – IS-95 CDMA & GSM

Technology – Mobile 3 – 2G – GSM SIMs, SMS, CAMEL & HSCSD

Technology – Mobile 4 – 2-5G – MMS, WAP, GPRS, SAIC & EDGE

Technology – Mobile 5 – 3G Technologies, Spreading & Scrambling

Technology – Mobile 6 – 3G UMTS, WCDMA, HSPA, LTE

Technology – Mobile 7 – 3G CDMA2000, EV-DO, UMB & IMS

Technology – Mobile 8 – Fixed-Mobile Convergence, UMA, GAN & Femtocells

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Digital tsunami is transforming the European broadcast industry

Friday, March 27th, 2009

Europe’s media market is on the cusp of massive changes driven by new technological developments in fixed-line broadband, while from 2010 mobile technologies led by LTE will enable a range of media services to be delivered on the mobile platform. Fast Internet access has brought content to the forefront, and content providers are in a position to move into the telecom arena. Quad play models based on fibre, DSL, cable and HSPA/LTE networks will deliver a growing number of services.

Operators are fast upgrading their communications networks to IP packet-switched technology, providing convergence and enabling voice, video and data applications to be delivered over the same physical network. Consumers are in the meantime exploiting the possibilities inherent in Digital and Personal Video Recorders, VoD and user-generated content to transform the way content is delivered and managed.

The availability of convergence offerings in Eastern Europe is expanding but has largely depended on the maturity of broadband markets, with many still in the nascent stages of development in terms of subscriber numbers. Yet the continuing deployment of ADSL2+ and FTTx infrastructure is laying the foundation for future convergence offerings. Technological developments coupled with competition are shaping digital media. TV broadcasters, the traditional distributors of media content, are competing with and at the same time turning to Internet delivery platforms. While new players have entered traditional media markets, new markets based on digital media products have emerged and are growing on the back of the region’s high broadband penetration.

The transition to Digital Terrestrial TV continues to take place, with countries such as Sweden having already switched off analogue signals. Regulators are assigning digital dividend spectrum released from this process to improve mobile broadband across the region, so accelerating the possibilities for convergent services in rural areas.

For more info see: 2008 European – Convergence and Broadcasting Market

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