Global policies – Copenhagen Climate Council
The Copenhagen Climate Council comprises 30 global leaders from business, science, and policy, dedicated to create awareness of the importance of COP15, the UN conference to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009. At this conference world leaders will meet to agree on a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol.
At present this Kyoto Protocol regulates CO2 emissions from a select group of mostly developed countries. If the world’s nations are to decide upon a new agreement before the Kyoto Protocol expires 2009 is the final opportunity to do so.
A global climate change agreement is necessary so that we can limit the negative man-made effects on the climatic system for future generations.
Climate changes in themselves are nothing new. What is new is that the atmospheric concentrations of man-made emissions have increased dangerously in recent decades, and that global warming is happening significantly faster than previously anticipated.
As it is a late-comer in the international debate on climate change it would be quite a challenge to get the USA to pass legislation before the December 2009 meeting. But the important issue is that America is now also firmly committed to move in this direction, and they are supportive of the Copenhagen meeting.
The other late-comer, Australia, might just be ready with its legislation before that date.
China’s position is more fluid, and quite complex. Beijing has certainly made a verbal commitment to CO2 emission reduction, but the political structure of China makes it very difficult to implement such policies beyond the east coast. The good thing is that China increasingly wishes to show international leadership and that it is therefore becoming more and more engaged with the wider international community.
Like other nations, China is seeking to uncouple GDP growth from emissions growth. It does not want to be the spoiler in achieving an effective treaty, but it still takes a hardline position in negotiations.
Within the context of the current financial crisis it is important for stimulus packages to be constructed in such a way as to avoid locking in legacy industries; China has done well here in focussing its stimulus spending on retooling.
With the USA on board it will now be possible for agreement to be reached on the treaty. UN General Secretary Ban Ki-Moon has convened a meeting of heads of government in September 2009 to try to get some kind of consensus.
However, it is quite possible that the Copenhagen Treaty will not be able to deliver the outcome that most people would like to see. The world, individual countries and individual industries are still very much silo focussed and it is extremely difficult to generate the trans-sector thinking that is essential if we really want to find solutions for this extremely complex problem.
Rather than looking for a trans-sector approach these silos will most probably become entangled with each other. The most obvious problem area would be trade issues, especially if countries begin to introduce carbon tariffs, which would lead to the kinds of boundary problems we have discussed many times. There is a very good chance that the current system will lead to a whole new series of trade wars.
Another obvious entanglement will be between climate change and national security issues, in both the medium and the long term.
For further information, see separate report: Smart Grids – Energy & Environmental Issues.
Tweet This Post